TAMPA, Fla. — We’ve got four weeks left in the NFL season and oddsmakers have chosen a clear favorite for the league’s regular season MVP trophy.
And, of course, it’s 44-year-old quarterback Tom Brady. Who else?
His odds over at BetOnline.ag are now -210, a heavy favorite to win the highest player honor this year, a clear favorite.
The only other name on odds boards remotely close at this point is defending NFL MVP Aaron Rodgers who sits at +650 in current odds.
It’s familiar territory for Brady and Rodgers, who are two of six players in NFL history to have won three MVP awards already.
Brady’s stats though 13 games in his 22nd NFL season speak for themselves.
Passing Yards: 4,134 yards (1st)
Passing Touchdowns: 36 (1st)
Completion Percentage: 68.2% (6th among starting QBs)
Quarterback Rating: 104.2 (4th among starting QBs)
Interceptions: 10
Meanwhile, Brady has the defending champion Bucs sitting at 10-3, tied for the best record in the NFC, and ready to make a push to return back to the Super Bowl.
Rodgers has also again been very effective in 12 games played so far this season. He missed one due to COVID-19.
Passing Yards: 3.219 (10th)
Passing Touchdowns: 27 (5th)
Completion Percentage: 67.3% (10h among starting QBs)
Quarterback Rating: 108.8 (1st among starting QBs)
Interceptions: 4 (Fewest among starting QBs)
Rodgers has his Packers at 10-3 this season as well, as they’ll compete with the Bucs, Cardinals, Rams and Cowboys down the stretch for a first-round bye.
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Besides Rodgers, who can catch Brady?
There’s probably four quarterbacks that have any shot at catching Brady besides Aaron Rodgers and those are the next four quarterbacks on BetOnline.ag’s odds: Matthew Stafford, Kyler Murray, Patrick Mahomes and Justin Herbert.
Not only do you need the stats, but you need the wins to win the NFL MVP. These are the QBs that have both right now and if they can go 3-1 or 4-0 to end the year, they may have a shot.
Matthew Stafford
Stafford really showcased himself in primetime on Monday Night Football in Arizona against the Cardinals. He was nearly perfect with three passing touchdowns, 287 yards through the air and a 139.2 quarterback rating.
The Rams are 9-4 and finish the year vs. Seattle, at Minnesota, at Baltimore and home against San Francisco. Given that four-week stretch where Stafford threw five interceptions in three-straight losses, the damage may already be done.
But, Stafford sits at third in passing yards, just 236 behind Brady, and second in passing touchdowns, three behind Brady. If he can go 4-0 and steal the top spot in one or both of those categories, we could seriously be talking about Stafford for MVP.
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Kyler Murray
A lot of things would have to go right at the end here for Kyler Murray to get the NFL MVP after he threw two interceptions and no touchdown passes in Arizona’s loss to the Rams on Sunday.
The Cardinals would definitely need to have the best record in the NFL for Murray to be selected over Brady. And, Murray would have to rack up the touchdowns through the air and on the ground.
His 71.6% completion percentage speaks for itself but he missed three games due to an ankle injury that killed his overall numbers in comparison to Brady and Rodgers and Stafford.
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Patrick Mahomes
Patrick Mahomes lowkey has a shot to come and take the NFL MVP award. Again, a lot would have to go right for him, a lot would have to go right for all these guys in order to get it out of Brady’s hands, but the Chiefs do have a shot at finishing with the AFC’s best record.
In that scenario, how could you ignore Mahomes?
While his 12 interceptions are up there nearing most in the NFL, Brady has 10 himself. He’s tied for 5th-most passing touchdowns with Rodgers at 27 and he’s fifth in passing yards right now.
The Chiefs have won six-straight games. If they can defeat the Chargers on Thursday night with a good game from Mahomes, his odds are going to shoot up.
If the Chiefs can beat the Chargers to get to 10-4, they’re left with home against the Steelers, at Bengals and at Denver. All three would be big wins for a Kansas City team that was 3-4 at one point this year. If the Chiefs win out, there will be a lot of MVP chatter for Mahomes.
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Justin Herbert
He’s a longshot but his chances for MVP aren’t dead. The reigning NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year is putting together another good year and he has the Chargers at 8-5.
His MVP case dies if the Chargers can’t beat the Chiefs on Thursday, but if they do behind a big game from him, you’ll hear some Herbert noise.
He’s third in passing yards and third in passing touchdowns with 30 along with a 67.1% completion percentage.
The Chargers are another team that has a shot to win each of their final three games (at Houston, vs. Denver, at Las Vegas). If the Chargers finish 12-5 and Herbert keeps slinging it, he could have a real case made for him. Although he’ll likely need some regression from the NFC guys.
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